Current price comparisons
Experimental estimates. No edge or executable profit has been demonstrated.
Review saved forecasts and measured resultsPrice shopping · game lines
Current book prices against Pinnacle or the other books at the same line. No model involved. Rule 2026-09-26-shop1.
| Game | Side / line | Book | Price | Estimated fair | Estimated EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL · Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions | Detroit Lions ML | betrivers | -162 | -175 | 2.9% |
| NFL · Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 | draftkings | -105 | -110 | 2.3% |
| NFL · Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions | Detroit Lions ML | betmgm | -165 | -175 | 2.2% |
Price shopping · player props
Separate from game-line and model performance. Historical replay statistics are excluded from prospective evidence.
| Game | Prop / line | Book | Price | Estimated EV | Observed |
|---|
Model price estimates
Frozen experimental blend (2026-09-26-ev2). The earlier historical fit does not prove predictive value; forward measurement is required.
| Game | Side / line | Book | Price | Market probability | Model probability | Blend EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA · CHI @ MIL | MIL ML | DraftKings | -118 | 51.9% | 58.0% | -4.2% |
| NBA · CHI @ MIL | CHI ML | DraftKings | -102 | 48.1% | 42.0% | -4.7% |
| NBA · CHI @ MIL | MIL -1.5 | DraftKings | -102 | 48.3% | 70.5% | -4.4% |
| NBA · CHI @ MIL | CHI +1.5 | DraftKings | -118 | 51.7% | 29.5% | -4.4% |
| NBA · CHI @ MIL | Over 240.5 | DraftKings | -108 | 49.6% | 31.6% | -4.5% |
| NBA · CHI @ MIL | Under 240.5 | DraftKings | -112 | 50.4% | 68.4% | -4.5% |
| NBA · NY @ BOS | BOS ML | DraftKings | -130 | 54.5% | 57.6% | -3.5% |
| NBA · NY @ BOS | NY ML | DraftKings | +110 | 45.5% | 42.4% | -4.5% |
| NBA · NY @ BOS | BOS -2.5 | DraftKings | -108 | 49.6% | 47.1% | -4.5% |
| NBA · NY @ BOS | NY +2.5 | DraftKings | -112 | 50.4% | 52.9% | -4.5% |
| NBA · NY @ BOS | Over 221.5 | DraftKings | -110 | 50.0% | 49.3% | -4.5% |
| NBA · NY @ BOS | Under 221.5 | DraftKings | -110 | 50.0% | 50.7% | -4.5% |
| NBA · ATL @ CHA | CHA ML | DraftKings | +114 | 44.5% | 56.9% | -4.7% |
| NBA · ATL @ CHA | ATL ML | DraftKings | -135 | 55.5% | 43.1% | -3.4% |
| NBA · ATL @ CHA | CHA +2.5 | DraftKings | -110 | 50.0% | 61.3% | -4.5% |
| NBA · ATL @ CHA | ATL -2.5 | DraftKings | -110 | 50.0% | 38.7% | -4.5% |
| NBA · ATL @ CHA | Over 227.5 | DraftKings | -105 | 48.9% | 59.3% | -4.5% |
| NBA · ATL @ CHA | Under 227.5 | DraftKings | -115 | 51.1% | 40.7% | -4.5% |
| NBA · DAL @ IND | IND ML | DraftKings | -265 | 70.9% | 63.1% | -2.4% |
| NBA · DAL @ IND | DAL ML | DraftKings | +215 | 29.1% | 36.9% | -8.3% |
| NBA · DAL @ IND | IND -7.5 | DraftKings | -110 | 50.0% | 51.4% | -4.5% |
| NBA · DAL @ IND | DAL +7.5 | DraftKings | -110 | 50.0% | 48.6% | -4.5% |
| NBA · DAL @ IND | Over 240.5 | DraftKings | -105 | 48.9% | 38.9% | -4.5% |
| NBA · DAL @ IND | Under 240.5 | DraftKings | -115 | 51.1% | 61.1% | -4.5% |
| NBA · MIN @ ORL | ORL ML | DraftKings | -112 | 50.5% | 48.1% | -4.5% |
| NBA · MIN @ ORL | MIN ML | DraftKings | -108 | 49.5% | 51.9% | -4.6% |
| NBA · MIN @ ORL | ORL -1.5 | DraftKings | +100 | 47.8% | 24.7% | -4.3% |
| NBA · MIN @ ORL | MIN +1.5 | DraftKings | -120 | 52.2% | 75.3% | -4.3% |
| NBA · MIN @ ORL | Over 233.5 | DraftKings | -115 | 51.1% | 64.5% | -4.5% |
| NBA · MIN @ ORL | Under 233.5 | DraftKings | -105 | 48.9% | 35.5% | -4.5% |
| NBA · TOR @ WSH | WSH ML | DraftKings | +260 | 25.1% | 55.7% | -9.6% |
| NBA · TOR @ WSH | TOR ML | DraftKings | -325 | 74.9% | 44.3% | -2.1% |
| NBA · TOR @ WSH | WSH +8.5 | DraftKings | -108 | 49.6% | 58.5% | -4.5% |
| NBA · TOR @ WSH | TOR -8.5 | DraftKings | -112 | 50.4% | 41.5% | -4.5% |
| NBA · TOR @ WSH | Over 236.5 | DraftKings | -115 | 51.1% | 40.0% | -4.5% |
| NBA · TOR @ WSH | Under 236.5 | DraftKings | -105 | 48.9% | 60.0% | -4.5% |
| NHL · MTL @ CHI | CHI ML | DraftKings | +142 | 39.0% | 57.0% | -5.7% |
| NHL · MTL @ CHI | MTL ML | DraftKings | -170 | 61.0% | 43.0% | -3.0% |
| NHL · MTL @ CHI | CHI +1.5 | DraftKings | -180 | 61.6% | 71.8% | -4.1% |
| NHL · MTL @ CHI | MTL -1.5 | DraftKings | +150 | 38.4% | 28.2% | -4.1% |
| NHL · MTL @ CHI | Over 6.5 | DraftKings | +102 | 47.4% | 51.7% | -4.3% |
| NHL · MTL @ CHI | Under 6.5 | DraftKings | -122 | 52.6% | 48.3% | -4.3% |
| NBA · DET @ MIA | MIA ML | DraftKings | +100 | 47.7% | 49.0% | -4.6% |
| NBA · DET @ MIA | DET ML | DraftKings | -120 | 52.3% | 51.0% | -4.1% |
| NBA · DET @ MIA | MIA +1.5 | DraftKings | -110 | 50.0% | 32.0% | -4.5% |
| NBA · DET @ MIA | DET -1.5 | DraftKings | -110 | 50.0% | 68.0% | -4.5% |
| NBA · DET @ MIA | Over 235.5 | DraftKings | -108 | 49.6% | 42.2% | -4.5% |
| NBA · DET @ MIA | Under 235.5 | DraftKings | -112 | 50.4% | 57.8% | -4.5% |
| NHL · TB @ COL | COL ML | DraftKings | -125 | 53.5% | 45.4% | -3.8% |
| NHL · TB @ COL | TB ML | DraftKings | +105 | 46.5% | 54.6% | -4.6% |
| NHL · TB @ COL | COL -1.5 | DraftKings | +195 | 32.5% | 16.8% | -4.1% |
| NHL · TB @ COL | TB +1.5 | DraftKings | -238 | 67.5% | 83.2% | -4.1% |
| NHL · TB @ COL | Over 6.5 | DraftKings | +102 | 47.4% | 50.0% | -4.3% |
| NHL · TB @ COL | Under 6.5 | DraftKings | -122 | 52.6% | 50.0% | -4.3% |
| NBA · HOU @ SA | SA ML | DraftKings | -205 | 65.4% | 49.0% | -2.7% |
| NBA · HOU @ SA | HOU ML | DraftKings | +170 | 34.6% | 51.0% | -6.6% |
| NBA · HOU @ SA | SA -5.5 | DraftKings | -102 | 48.3% | 17.5% | -4.4% |
| NBA · HOU @ SA | HOU +5.5 | DraftKings | -118 | 51.7% | 82.5% | -4.4% |
| NBA · HOU @ SA | Over 225.5 | DraftKings | -105 | 48.9% | 54.5% | -4.5% |
| NBA · HOU @ SA | Under 225.5 | DraftKings | -115 | 51.1% | 45.5% | -4.5% |
| NBA · NO @ UTAH | UTAH ML | DraftKings | -110 | 50.0% | 56.2% | -4.5% |
| NBA · NO @ UTAH | NO ML | DraftKings | -110 | 50.0% | 43.8% | -4.5% |
| NBA · NO @ UTAH | UTAH +1.5 | DraftKings | -120 | 52.2% | 47.1% | -4.3% |
| NBA · NO @ UTAH | NO -1.5 | DraftKings | +100 | 47.8% | 52.9% | -4.3% |
| NBA · NO @ UTAH | Over 240.5 | DraftKings | -105 | 48.9% | 30.5% | -4.5% |
| NBA · NO @ UTAH | Under 240.5 | DraftKings | -115 | 51.1% | 69.5% | -4.5% |
| NBA · MEM @ GS | GS ML | DraftKings | -180 | 62.4% | 49.6% | -2.9% |
| NBA · MEM @ GS | MEM ML | DraftKings | +150 | 37.6% | 50.4% | -6.0% |
| NBA · MEM @ GS | GS -4.5 | DraftKings | -108 | 49.6% | 14.8% | -4.5% |
| NBA · MEM @ GS | MEM +4.5 | DraftKings | -112 | 50.4% | 85.2% | -4.5% |
| NBA · MEM @ GS | Over 236.5 | DraftKings | -115 | 51.1% | 30.7% | -4.5% |
| NBA · MEM @ GS | Under 236.5 | DraftKings | -105 | 48.9% | 69.3% | -4.5% |
| NBA · LAC @ LAL | LAL ML | DraftKings | -380 | 77.7% | 56.7% | -1.9% |
| NBA · LAC @ LAL | LAC ML | DraftKings | +300 | 22.3% | 43.3% | -10.7% |
| NBA · LAC @ LAL | LAL -9.5 | DraftKings | -105 | 48.9% | 27.0% | -4.5% |
| NBA · LAC @ LAL | LAC +9.5 | DraftKings | -115 | 51.1% | 73.0% | -4.5% |
| NBA · LAC @ LAL | Over 225.5 | DraftKings | -115 | 51.1% | 47.5% | -4.5% |
| NBA · LAC @ LAL | Under 225.5 | DraftKings | -105 | 48.9% | 52.5% | -4.5% |
| NBA · POR @ SAC | SAC ML | DraftKings | +340 | 20.0% | 48.8% | -12.2% |
| NBA · POR @ SAC | POR ML | DraftKings | -440 | 80.0% | 51.2% | -1.8% |
| NBA · POR @ SAC | SAC +9.5 | DraftKings | -105 | 48.9% | 33.3% | -4.5% |
| NBA · POR @ SAC | POR -9.5 | DraftKings | -115 | 51.1% | 66.7% | -4.5% |
| NBA · POR @ SAC | Over 232.5 | DraftKings | -105 | 48.9% | 17.1% | -4.5% |
| NBA · POR @ SAC | Under 232.5 | DraftKings | -115 | 51.1% | 82.9% | -4.5% |
| WNBA · GS @ ATL | ATL ML | DraftKings | -192 | 63.9% | 68.1% | -2.8% |
| WNBA · GS @ ATL | GS ML | DraftKings | +160 | 36.1% | 31.9% | -6.2% |
| WNBA · GS @ ATL | ATL -4.5 | DraftKings | -115 | 51.1% | 51.6% | -4.5% |
| WNBA · GS @ ATL | GS +4.5 | DraftKings | -105 | 48.9% | 48.4% | -4.5% |
| WNBA · GS @ ATL | Over 153.5 | DraftKings | -110 | 50.0% | 78.6% | -4.5% |
| WNBA · GS @ ATL | Under 153.5 | DraftKings | -110 | 50.0% | 21.4% | -4.5% |
| NFL · PIT @ NO | NO ML | DraftKings | +145 | 38.3% | 37.3% | -6.1% |
| NFL · PIT @ NO | PIT ML | DraftKings | -175 | 61.7% | 62.7% | -3.1% |
| NFL · PIT @ NO | NO +3 | DraftKings | -102 | 48.3% | 34.6% | -4.4% |
| NFL · PIT @ NO | PIT -3 | DraftKings | -118 | 51.7% | 65.4% | -4.4% |
| NFL · PIT @ NO | Over 44.5 | DraftKings | -110 | 50.0% | 60.2% | 4.4% |
| NFL · PIT @ NO | Under 44.5 | DraftKings | -110 | 50.0% | 39.8% | -13.4% |
| NFL · SF @ ATL | ATL ML | DraftKings | +124 | 42.3% | 24.0% | -5.2% |
| NFL · SF @ ATL | SF ML | DraftKings | -148 | 57.7% | 76.0% | -3.4% |
| NFL · SF @ ATL | ATL +2.5 | DraftKings | -102 | 48.3% | 28.9% | -4.4% |
| NFL · SF @ ATL | SF -2.5 | DraftKings | -118 | 51.7% | 71.1% | -4.4% |
| NFL · SF @ ATL | Over 49.5 | DraftKings | -115 | 51.1% | 42.7% | -11.6% |
| NFL · SF @ ATL | Under 49.5 | DraftKings | -105 | 48.9% | 57.3% | 2.9% |
| NFL · CLE @ TEN | TEN ML | DraftKings | +110 | 45.5% | 34.3% | -4.5% |
| NFL · CLE @ TEN | CLE ML | DraftKings | -130 | 54.5% | 65.7% | -3.5% |
| NFL · CLE @ TEN | TEN +1.5 | DraftKings | -112 | 50.4% | 30.3% | -4.5% |
| NFL · CLE @ TEN | CLE -1.5 | DraftKings | -108 | 49.6% | 69.7% | -4.5% |
| NFL · CLE @ TEN | Over 37.5 | DraftKings | -102 | 48.3% | 54.3% | 0.9% |
| NFL · CLE @ TEN | Under 37.5 | DraftKings | -118 | 51.7% | 45.7% | -9.4% |
| NFL · IND @ MIN | MIN ML | DraftKings | -278 | 71.9% | 81.1% | -2.3% |
| NFL · IND @ MIN | IND ML | DraftKings | +225 | 28.1% | 18.9% | -8.5% |
| NFL · IND @ MIN | MIN -6.5 | DraftKings | -108 | 49.6% | 69.7% | -4.5% |
| NFL · IND @ MIN | IND +6.5 | DraftKings | -112 | 50.4% | 30.3% | -4.5% |
| NFL · IND @ MIN | Over 41.5 | DraftKings | -110 | 50.0% | 55.5% | 0.2% |
| NFL · IND @ MIN | Under 41.5 | DraftKings | -110 | 50.0% | 44.5% | -9.3% |
| NFL · MIA @ NYJ | NYJ ML | DraftKings | -225 | 67.4% | 56.2% | -2.6% |
| NFL · MIA @ NYJ | MIA ML | DraftKings | +185 | 32.6% | 43.8% | -7.2% |
| NFL · MIA @ NYJ | NYJ -4.5 | DraftKings | -115 | 51.1% | 46.8% | -4.5% |
| NFL · MIA @ NYJ | MIA +4.5 | DraftKings | -105 | 48.9% | 53.2% | -4.5% |
| NFL · MIA @ NYJ | Over 39.5 | DraftKings | -108 | 49.6% | 54.6% | -0.2% |
| NFL · MIA @ NYJ | Under 39.5 | DraftKings | -112 | 50.4% | 45.4% | -8.8% |
| NFL · TB @ CAR | CAR ML | DraftKings | -166 | 60.6% | 71.9% | -2.9% |
| NFL · TB @ CAR | TB ML | DraftKings | +140 | 39.4% | 28.1% | -5.4% |
| NFL · TB @ CAR | CAR -3 | DraftKings | -115 | 51.1% | 71.1% | -4.5% |
| NFL · TB @ CAR | TB +3 | DraftKings | -105 | 48.9% | 28.9% | -4.5% |
| NFL · TB @ CAR | Over 44.5 | DraftKings | -110 | 50.0% | 57.6% | 2.0% |
| NFL · TB @ CAR | Under 44.5 | DraftKings | -110 | 50.0% | 42.4% | -11.1% |
| NFL · CIN @ BAL | BAL ML | DraftKings | -115 | 51.2% | 63.5% | -4.4% |
| NFL · CIN @ BAL | CIN ML | DraftKings | -105 | 48.8% | 36.5% | -4.6% |
| NFL · CIN @ BAL | BAL -1.5 | DraftKings | -105 | 48.9% | 59.4% | -4.5% |
| NFL · CIN @ BAL | CIN +1.5 | DraftKings | -115 | 51.1% | 40.6% | -4.5% |
| NFL · CIN @ BAL | Over 48.5 | DraftKings | -115 | 51.1% | 44.2% | -10.3% |
| NFL · CIN @ BAL | Under 48.5 | DraftKings | -105 | 48.9% | 55.8% | 1.5% |
| NFL · NYG @ HOU | HOU ML | DraftKings | -520 | 82.5% | 77.6% | -1.7% |
| NFL · NYG @ HOU | NYG ML | DraftKings | +390 | 17.5% | 22.4% | -14.1% |
| NFL · NYG @ HOU | HOU -10.5 | DraftKings | -108 | 49.6% | 50.0% | -4.5% |
| NFL · NYG @ HOU | NYG +10.5 | DraftKings | -112 | 50.4% | 50.0% | -4.5% |
| NFL · NYG @ HOU | Over 42.5 | DraftKings | -112 | 50.4% | 69.8% | 12.7% |
| NFL · NYG @ HOU | Under 42.5 | DraftKings | -108 | 49.6% | 30.2% | -22.1% |
| NFL · DEN @ ARI | ARI ML | DraftKings | +190 | 32.0% | 17.9% | -7.1% |
| NFL · DEN @ ARI | DEN ML | DraftKings | -230 | 68.0% | 82.1% | -2.5% |
| NFL · DEN @ ARI | ARI +4.5 | DraftKings | -110 | 50.0% | 37.5% | -4.5% |
| NFL · DEN @ ARI | DEN -4.5 | DraftKings | -110 | 50.0% | 62.5% | -4.5% |
| NFL · DEN @ ARI | Over 43.5 | DraftKings | -112 | 50.4% | 54.0% | -1.5% |
| NFL · DEN @ ARI | Under 43.5 | DraftKings | -108 | 49.6% | 46.0% | -7.6% |
| NFL · GB @ DET | DET ML | DraftKings | -175 | 61.7% | 55.6% | -3.1% |
| NFL · GB @ DET | GB ML | DraftKings | +145 | 38.3% | 44.4% | -6.1% |
| NFL · GB @ DET | DET -3 | DraftKings | -115 | 51.1% | 45.3% | -4.5% |
| NFL · GB @ DET | GB +3 | DraftKings | -105 | 48.9% | 54.7% | -4.5% |
| NFL · GB @ DET | Over 53.5 | DraftKings | -115 | 51.1% | 38.9% | -14.9% |
| NFL · GB @ DET | Under 53.5 | DraftKings | -105 | 48.9% | 61.1% | 6.4% |
| NFL · LAR @ LV | LV ML | DraftKings | +160 | 36.1% | 30.8% | -6.2% |
| NFL · LAR @ LV | LAR ML | DraftKings | -192 | 63.9% | 69.2% | -2.8% |
| NFL · LAR @ LV | LV +3.5 | DraftKings | -110 | 50.0% | 39.1% | -4.5% |
| NFL · LAR @ LV | LAR -3.5 | DraftKings | -110 | 50.0% | 60.9% | -4.5% |
| NFL · LAR @ LV | Over 48.5 | DraftKings | -110 | 50.0% | 48.5% | -5.9% |
| NFL · LAR @ LV | Under 48.5 | DraftKings | -110 | 50.0% | 51.5% | -3.2% |
| NFL · KC @ SEA | SEA ML | DraftKings | -142 | 56.7% | 74.0% | -3.3% |
| NFL · KC @ SEA | KC ML | DraftKings | +120 | 43.3% | 26.0% | -4.8% |
| NFL · KC @ SEA | SEA -3 | DraftKings | +100 | 47.8% | 66.9% | -4.3% |
| NFL · KC @ SEA | KC +3 | DraftKings | -120 | 52.2% | 33.1% | -4.3% |
| NFL · KC @ SEA | Over 42.5 | DraftKings | -110 | 50.0% | 47.0% | -7.2% |
| NFL · KC @ SEA | Under 42.5 | DraftKings | -110 | 50.0% | 53.0% | -1.9% |
| NFL · DAL @ PHI | PHI ML | DraftKings | +180 | 33.2% | 67.0% | -6.9% |
| NFL · DAL @ PHI | DAL ML | DraftKings | -218 | 66.8% | 33.0% | -2.6% |
| NFL · DAL @ PHI | PHI +4.5 | DraftKings | -108 | 49.6% | 78.6% | -4.5% |
| NFL · DAL @ PHI | DAL -4.5 | DraftKings | -112 | 50.4% | 21.4% | -4.5% |
| NFL · DAL @ PHI | Over 44.5 | DraftKings | -110 | 50.0% | 53.0% | -1.9% |
| NFL · DAL @ PHI | Under 44.5 | DraftKings | -110 | 50.0% | 47.0% | -7.2% |