How Prediction Matrix Works

Prediction Matrix is a transparent, data-driven sports prediction system covering NFL, NBA, and NHL. Every prediction can be traced back to specific inputs and calculations - click any game card to see exactly how the numbers were generated.

Full Calculation Transparency

Click any game card on the picks page to see the complete "glass box" breakdown:

  • • Team Elo ratings and how they translate to point spreads
  • • Offensive and defensive stats with regression adjustments
  • • Step-by-step score calculation with exact formulas
  • • Edge analysis showing our prediction vs Vegas lines
  • • Win probability calculations from Elo differential

Current Season Performance

Live results from this season. High conviction picks are filtered to our best situations. Break-even at -110 odds is 52.4%.

The Prediction Model

Step 1
Elo Ratings - Each team has a power rating (starting at 1500) that updates after every game. Wins against strong teams boost your rating more; losses to weak teams hurt more. This captures "who's actually good" better than win-loss records.
Step 2
Regression to Mean - Raw scoring stats are regressed 30% toward league average. This prevents overreacting to small samples - a team that scored big early probably won't maintain that pace all season.
Step 3
Matchup Calculation - Each team's predicted score combines their offensive output and opponent's defensive performance. This creates matchup-specific predictions rather than generic power ratings.
Step 4
Elo Adjustment - The Elo difference between teams adjusts the predicted scores, calibrated per sport (NFL: 100 Elo = 11 pts, NBA: 100 Elo = 4.25 pts, NHL: 100 Elo = 2 goals).
Step 5
Home Advantage - Home teams get a calibrated bonus (NFL: 3.25 pts, NBA: 3.5 pts, NHL: 0.3 goals).
Step 6
Spread Regression - Predicted spreads are shrunk 45% toward zero to reduce overconfidence. A raw 14-point spread becomes ~7.7 points.

Sport-Specific Models

NFL
  • • Weather impact on totals
  • • QB injury adjustments (-3 pts)
  • • Divisional game tracking
  • • Late season detection
  • • Elo mismatch analysis
NBA
  • • Rest day advantages
  • • Back-to-back detection
  • • Spread-adjusted ATS
  • • Higher-scoring baseline (113 PPG)
NHL
  • • Lower-scoring model (3.0 GPG)
  • • Puck line analysis
  • • Elo gap filtering
  • • Goal-based thresholds

High Conviction Picks

Not all picks are created equal. High conviction picks are filtered based on criteria that have historically produced the best results. These are the picks we're most confident in.

ATS / Spread / Puck Line
  • • NFL: 60%+ situation present (divisional, late season, large spread, Elo mismatch) AND not medium spread (3.5-6.5)
  • • NBA: Model agrees with Vegas on the favorite AND spread edge confirms direction
  • • NHL: Spread edge ≥0.75 goals AND Elo gap ≥80 points
Moneyline

15%+ win probability edge over implied 50/50 (all sports)

Over/Under
  • • NFL/NBA: 5+ point edge vs Vegas total
  • • NHL: 1.5+ goal edge vs Vegas total

Vegas Lines & Fair Comparison

Vegas lines are locked 1 hour before game time. This ensures we're comparing our predictions against the lines that were actually available to bettors, not lines that moved after late-breaking news. Once locked, lines don't change even if Vegas adjusts theirs.

Data Sources

  • Teams & Schedules: ESPN API (all sports)
  • Scores & Results: ESPN Scoreboard API (real-time updates)
  • Vegas Odds: ESPN Odds API (spreads, totals, moneylines - no API key needed)
  • Weather (NFL): OpenWeather API (game-time forecasts for outdoor stadiums)
  • Injuries (NFL): NFL.com injury reports (QB out = -3 pts)

Data syncs every 2 hours (NFL) or 30 minutes (NBA/NHL). Vegas lines lock 1 hour before game time.

Prediction Matrix is designed for analytical and entertainment purposes. Always gamble responsibly.