Kalshi vs Polymarket vs Robinhood
Three Prediction Markets. Three Different Approaches.
Prediction markets all aim to answer the same question—what will happen next? But how they do it matters a lot.
Here's a clear breakdown of Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood—without hype or tribal nonsense.
What Is Kalshi?
Kalshi is a US-regulated prediction market exchange focused on real-world events.
Key traits:
- Regulated in the United States (CFTC oversight)
- Markets tied to economic data and events
- Designed like a financial exchange
- Emphasis on compliance and transparency
Kalshi feels closer to trading futures than betting. It's built for structure, clarity, and legitimacy.
What Is Polymarket?
Polymarket is a crypto-based global prediction market known for speed and flexibility.
Key traits:
- Crypto-native (built on blockchain)
- Accessible worldwide
- Fast-moving political and tech markets
- Prices react instantly to news
Polymarket feels like Twitter, markets, and incentives smashed together—in a good way.
What Is Robinhood?
Robinhood offers event contracts—prediction markets built into their popular brokerage app.
Key traits:
- US-regulated (CFTC via Robinhood Derivatives)
- Heavy focus on sports: NFL, college football, basketball
- Integrated into existing brokerage with millions of users
- Low fees ($0.01 per contract)
- Massive trading volume (billions of contracts monthly)
Robinhood feels like sports betting meets Wall Street—familiar interface, serious scale.
Key Differences at a Glance
| Feature | Kalshi | Polymarket | Robinhood |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regulation | US (CFTC) | Crypto-based | US (CFTC) |
| Accessibility | US-focused | Global | US only |
| Focus | Economics, data | Politics, tech | Sports |
| User Base | Macro traders | Crypto natives | Retail investors |
| Fees | Varies | Gas + platform | $0.01/contract |
| Volume | Growing | High | Massive (billions) |
None is "better." They solve different problems for different users.
Which One Is More Accurate?
It depends on the market type.
- Kalshi shines in structured, well-defined outcomes (inflation, rates, official data releases)
- Polymarket excels when information moves fast (politics, breaking news, tech developments)
- Robinhood dominates sports with massive liquidity and real-time player props
Smart users watch all three—each platform attracts different information.
Why This Comparison Matters
As prediction markets grow, probabilities are becoming a new form of data.
Comparing platforms helps you:
- Spot divergences early
- Understand where information is flowing
- See how narratives evolve in real time
That's where real signal lives.
Coming Soon in Prediction Matrix
Prediction Matrix plans to support:
- Kalshi market monitoring
- Polymarket probability tracking
- Robinhood event contracts
- Cross-market comparison tools
One screen. Multiple beliefs. Clearer insight.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which prediction market is best: Kalshi, Polymarket, or Robinhood?
None is objectively best. Kalshi focuses on economic events, Polymarket on politics and current events, and Robinhood on sports. Choose based on what you want to trade and your location.
Is Kalshi legal in the US?
Yes. Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) and operates legally in the United States.
Is Robinhood prediction markets legal?
Yes. Robinhood offers event contracts through Robinhood Derivatives, which is regulated by the CFTC. Available to US users (except Maryland and Nevada for sports).
Can US users access Polymarket?
Polymarket has restrictions for US users due to regulatory concerns. Always check current terms and local regulations before participating.
Which prediction market is more accurate?
Accuracy depends on the market type. Kalshi excels in economic data, Polymarket in politics, and Robinhood in sports. Smart users watch multiple platforms.
What are Robinhood event contracts?
Event contracts are prediction market trades on Robinhood. You buy Yes or No on outcomes (sports, economics) with prices reflecting probability. $0.60 = 60% chance.
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